How much warming in the pipeline? Part 1 – CO2-e

Brave New Climate

CO2-equivalents, for all forcings and just greenhouse gases

You may have heard that the planet is committed to further warming and sea level rise, irrespective of what choices we now make to reduce carbon emissions. The global warming century trend that was observed from 1906 to 2005 was 0.74°C (with a 90% uncertainty range of 0.56°C to 0.92°C), with more warming occurring in the Northern over Southern Hemispheres, and more over land compared to oceans. Yet, based on our understanding of the climate impact of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other trace gases, we should have observed even more warming than this. Actually, when you put all the pieces together, the expectation is for much more warming.

But before I tackle the critical issue of just how much more warming is still in the pipeline (in another post), it is important to explain…

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